National Living Wage projected to rise to £12.65, estimates Low Pay Commission

The National Living Wage (NLW) is projected to increase to between £12.50 and £12.80 per hour in April 2026, with a central estimate of £12.65, said the Low Pay Commission (LPC).

Each year, the LPC advises government ministers on the appropriate wage levels, with the final decision typically announced in the Chancellor’s Autumn Statement.

The LPC recently launched its annual consultation to gather opinions from businesses, workers, and stakeholders before making its recommendation to the government later this year.

It is encouraging sectors affected by the minimum wage, particularly retail and hospitality, to respond.

In the consultation, the LPC noted that the NLW rose to £12.21 per hour in April 2025 for workers aged 21 and over.

This increase met the government’s target of raising the NLW to two-thirds of median earnings, while also providing a real-terms increase for low-paid workers, said the LPC.

To maintain this threshold in 2026, the new rate between £12.50 and £12.80 would “be necessary”, it added.

The LPC said it acknowledged the uncertainty in predicting wage growth, given current economic volatility and will revise its estimates once its official remit is confirmed.

Andrew Goodacre, chief executive of British Independent Retail Association (BIRA), said the trade body will be responding to the consultation: “With many independent retailers already managing tight margins, assessing the potential impact of further wage increases on small businesses is crucial.

“The consultation process plays a key role in shaping these decisions and Bira is urging its members to share their feedback to ensure their voices are heard.”

You can respond to the 2025 consultation on the LPC’s online platform here, or submit written evidence via email to lpc@lowpay.gov.uk.