The Institute of Grocery Distribution (IGD) has released updated inflation forecasts for the UK food and drink sector, with a warning food inflation could briefly reach over 8% by June 2026 if disruption to global energy markets persists, in the most severe but short‑lived energy shock scenario.
This is more than double the current food inflation rate of 3.6%.
This comes on top of a sustained rise in prices, with UK retail food prices now around 38% higher than pre‑Covid levels, leaving households far more exposed to further price spikes.
Under this scenario, the sharp rise in prices would be “short‑lived but severe,” with average food inflation of around 6.4% across 2026, adding over £150 to the average household’s annual grocery bills, intensifying the pressure on family budgets which are already stretched by elevated housing, energy and essential living costs.
Even in IGD’s baseline scenario mapping which assumes no Middle East conflict, retail food inflation is still forecast to average 3.8% in 2026.
IGD’s modelling also highlights a middle scenario, where a more moderate but temporary energy shock would lift average food inflation to around 4.8% in 2026, underlining that even relatively short‑lived disruption in energy markets can have a meaningful impact on food prices.
The new forecasts take into account the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, a key energy-producing region. The disruption is expected to impact food production directly, due to the energy-intensive nature of the supply chain, where oil and gas play critical roles at every stage.
James Walton, IGD chief economist, said: “Even in the best-case scenario, the conflict in the Middle East is likely to prolong the timeline for recovery from the cost of living crisis.
“Persistently high food prices continue to fuel concern over excess profits, based on the assumption higher prices must mean higher profits. Our Food Pound analysis shows that the evidence points in the opposite direction - margins for basic food and drink remain exceptionally thin, and in many cases have fallen in recent years.
“For example, margins on nine everyday food items average just 1.5% across the supply chain, with items such as chicken breast sold at cost and beef mince generating under 1% margin. When margins are this tight, businesses have limited capacity to absorb global shocks, invest in resilience or protect supply. Over time, that increases the risk of weaker availability and greater price volatility.
The ultimate impact on prices for shoppers will depend on unknown variables such as the duration and severity of conflict in the Middle East and damage to oil and gas facilities. The IGD says it will continue to monitor developments and provide updated forecasts as the situation evolves.
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