The UK convenience sector is tipped to grow to a value of £49.1bn in 2026, according to the latest data from Lumina Intelligence.
In its latest UK Convenience & Wholesale Market Report, unveiled at the Convenience Strategy Forum, Lumina Intelligence predicted a market growth of 1.8% driven by multiple and symbol group operators that have been focused on increasing their estates. It added that high inflation will prop up sales growth once again in 2026. This is despite the disposable vape ban stalling sales growth in 2025.
Food to go was flagged as a main focus for the coming year, with symbol groups enhancing their ranges to meet shifting shopper demands.
Looking even further ahead, Lumina Intelligence predicts that the sector will be worth £54bn in 2029, a compound annual growth rate of 3.2%. This predicted growth is expected to be driven by technology-led developments that allow stores to tailor ranges more effectively; better shopper targeting and new store models that take advantage of new categories and services.
In its predictions for the future, Lumina expects to see more developments with self-serve vending machines and DRS returns – utilising space such as close to electric vehicle chargers in car parks and service stations (which can be relatively far from shopfronts)
It also believes local produce is set to grow its prevalence in convenience stores as a point of difference to larger grocers.
More partnerships between foodservice brands and suppliers to create chilled products to tap into trends around global cuisine and health are predicted, as shoppers seek to widen cooking repertoires.
The report also warned of new and upcoming legislation across packaging, vaping, sugar and tobacco that is “reshaping both cost bases and core categories, creating short-term disruption while driving longer-term structural change across the convenience market”.
Convenience shoppers also came under the spotlight in the research, with it highlighting how younger shoppers are responding to trend-led flavours, indulgence cues, and functional health benefits, and that the little but often top up is continuing to grow amongst consumers.
It also identified five key trends for retailers to watch out for - health, food to go & meal deals, technology, newness & unique and versatility.
The full UK Convenience & Wholesale Market Report 2026 can be purchased here.
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